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Non-OPEC oil supply forecasts revised down

September 13, 2018/ 09:30

Baku, Azerbaijan. Non-OPEC oil supply forecasts for 2018 were revised down by 0.06 million barrels per day (mb/d) to average 59.56 mb/d, OPEC said in its Oil Market Report.

This is mainly due to a downward adjustment in the supply forecast for Brazil, the UK, India, Malaysia and China on lower-than-expected output in 2H18, which was partially offset by an upward revision in US supply.

“Y-o-y growth was also revised down by 0.06 mb/d to now stand at 2.02 mb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, Kazakhstan and the UK are expected to be the main drivers for y-o-y growth, while Mexico and Norway will show the largest declines”, the report said.

Non-OPEC oil supply in 2019 was also revised down by 41,000 b/d and is now projected to reach an average of 61.71 mb/d, mainly due to a downward revision to the UK’s supply forecast for next year, told Trend.

“However, y-o-y supply growth was revised up by 0.02 mb/d to now stand at 2.15 mb/d. The US, Brazil, Canada, the UK, Kazakhstan, Australia, China and Malaysia are the main growth drivers, while Mexico and Norway are expected to see the largest declines. The 2019 forecast is subject to many uncertainties”, said the report.

In December 2016, at a meeting of oil producers in Vienna, 11 non-OPEC member countries, including Azerbaijan, agreed to cut oil production by a total of 558,000 barrels a day. The agreement was concluded for the first half of 2017 and was extended until the end of the first quarter of 2018 at a meeting on May 25, 2017.

At the last OPEC meeting in Vienna, the agreement was again extended until the end of 2018. Azerbaijan supported the decision.

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