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Alexander Khurshudov: the news about the record production of 6 mln bpd of shale oil in the US is disinformation

November 23, 2017/ 09:19

Moscow. A new record is set in shale oil production! According to the US Energy Ministry, shale oil production in October could overcome the barrier of 6.1 mln bpd for the first time in history, reports investbrothers.ru website. 

Alexander Khurshudov, ANGI expert comments on the news.

- I don’t like commenting nonsense, but this is a special occasion. I’ve never seen so many lies in just 25-line story. I deliberately quote a part of the text with all the grammar and other mistakes. Her it is (pic. 1)

 

 

 

Pic. 1

The translation:

Source: the US Energy Ministry

However, this figure is not final, the US Energy Ministry usually revises the indicators after some time. Besides, two basins, Haynesville Region and Utica Regions were excluded from the shale oil production estimates. These areas are the most modest in terms of production, less than 70 thousand barrels a day. The Ministry now excludes them from shale oil production estimates.

According to the Ministry’s forecasts the production of unconventional oil may increase up to 6.2 mln barrels in November and up to 6.28 mln in December (if the production in Haynesville Region and Utica Regions is included).

Now let’s review it point by point.

1. The US Energy Ministry has nothing to do with this data. It doesn’t deal with reserves estimates at all. It is the job of EIA

2. Production of 6.2 mln barrels a month for the US is nothing. It should have said 6.2 mln barrels a day.

3. The quoted chart of shale oil production was invented by the authors of this disinformation. Google search does not give any other sources (Pic. 2):

Pic.2

4. Nothing close to 6.1 mln bpd of shale oil has ever been produced in the US. The EIA keeps record of production for tight oil, that is the oil from tight (low-permeable) formations, which also include the oil from tight sandstones, limestones, shales and other rocks. As of October 1,  4.84 mln bpd of such oil were produced.   

5. The Utica and Haynesville oilfields are obviously included. The former producing 50 thousand bpd, the late nothing for there is only gas there.

6. The difference between the fact and the fiction can be explained by the fact that in the number of oilfields oil is produced not only from tight formations but also from the conventional ones. For example, in the Permian basin (pic. 3) 0.8 mln bpd of such oil is produced. By the way, oil was discovered there 90 years ago, and over 3 bln tons have already been produced.  

Pic. 3

So, the news about the “record production” of 6 mln bpd of shale oil in the US is disinformation from the beginning to the end. And its purpose, to my mind, is to mislead traders.

I’d like to note that only the OIL. website fell for it and quoted it with all the mistakes. The others doubted. And this is good to know. 

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